For at least half a decade, Chinese manufacturers including Brilliance, Geely, Great Wall and BYD Auto have displayed vehicles at the Detroit and Los Angeles auto shows, often with news releases announcing plans to sell cars in the near future. But the cars never materialized in the dealer showrooms — which also remain missing.
The BYD F3DM could become a notable exception. BYD says its plug-in-hybrid car from China is on track to reach the United States in spring 2012. Even if that proves true, it may register as barely a blip in an increasingly crowded market for alternative-power cars, industry analysts say.
Still, just getting the car to market would represent a leap forward for a Chinese manufacturer. In 2006, Brilliance said it would start selling its cars in the United States by 2009. To date, none have arrived. And Chery Automobile backed out of an agreement with Chrysler, which was supposed to provide a beachhead in the American market.
In 2006, the Nanjing Automobile Group, which bought the assets of the bankrupt MG Rover, said it wanted to be the first Chinese carmaker to build vehicles in the United States — including a new edition of the MG sports car — but its plans to open an Oklahoma factory never materialized.
Geely, which bought Volvo last year, showed small sedans at the 2006 and 2008 Detroit auto shows, but those cars have not been certified to meet American safety and emissions standards.
The false starts are a result of Chinese automakers’ letting their ambitions get ahead of the hard work of cracking the ultracompetitive American market, analysts say. Fueled by cheap financing and booming domestic demand, Chinese automakers have been growing rapidly at home. That has given them the confidence, though not necessarily the tools, to start selling to Americans.
“This isn’t computers or cellphones, where you just get into a big-box store,” said Bill Visnic, a senior analyst at Edmunds.com. “You need some dealerships, and those things are tremendous investments of time and resources. They thought it was going to be a lot easier than it was.”
It hasn’t helped, of course, that the last few years have been a terrible time to introduce cars. When the housing market plunged, followed by the general economy, consumers hunkered down. Vehicle sales in the United States fell about 40 percent from 2005-9, General Motors and Chrysler received government bailouts, hundreds of dealerships were shuttered and auto loans dried up. Even sales of hybrids suffered as oil prices receded.
While the economy has improved somewhat, the Chinese still face big challenges. Partly, they must determine which part of the market to attack. Compact cars may be one of the easier entry points for a new company, but competition is fierce and margins are slim.
The Chinese could try to leapfrog the market by selling more advanced hybrids and plug-ins. Indeed, Coda Automotive of Santa Monica, Calif., plans to import the bodies of a Chinese sedan, the Hafei Saibao, into which the company will install electric powertrains. But hybrids and electric vehicles account for just 2.2 percent of global sales, according to J. D. Power & Associates.
“Because consumers are wary about electric vehicles and their driving range and batteries, they are even more likely to go with more established companies like G.M. and Nissan,” said Mike Omotoso, who follows the sales of hybrids and electric vehicles for J. D. Power.
Mr. Omotoso said the Chinese could buy competitors and use their dealers to reach Americans. The most likely candidate for this strategy is Geely, which acquired Volvo last summer. Even then, Geely would have to spend millions of dollars on marketing — and hope American consumers are adventurous enough to try a new brand.
“The problem with the Chinese car companies,” Mr. Omotoso said, “is they are trying to run before they walk.”
No comments:
Post a Comment